Khahlanong le maemo a matla a ho hloka botsitso 'marakeng oa lefats'e oa tšepe, indasteri ea aluminium e bonts'itse thepa e ikhethang ea anti cyclical ka lebaka la lithibelo tse thata tsa leano la siling ea matla a China le keketseho e tsoelang pele ea tlhoko e ncha ea matla. Ka 2025, 'maraka oa tšepe ena ea leano o ntse o fetoha haholo, ka mathata a tlhahiso, phetoho ea matla, le maano a lipolotiki a hokahaneng, a theha paradigm e ncha ea matsete tlasa tekano e tiileng ea phepelo.
Ho tiea ha leano ho haha ka tlase, ho totobatsa phello ea siling ea matla a tlhahiso ea China.
Ho tloha ha ho kengoa ts'ebetsong ea lithane tse limilione tse 45 / selemo sa matla a tlhahiso ea mohala o mofubelu ka 2017, sekhahla sa tšebeliso ea matla a tlhahiso ea electrolytic aluminium naheng ea Chaena se fihlile boleng ba bohlokoa ba 98%. Ho tloha ka Hlakubele 2025, matla a tlhahiso ea malapeng a fihlile ho lithane tse limilione tse 45.17, 'me libaka tse ruileng tsa metsi tse kang Yunnan le Inner Mongolia e se e le lebala la ntoa la ho nchafatsa matla. Ho bohlokoa ho elelloa hore litšitiso tsa linako tsa selemo tsa phepelo ea motlakase o fehloang ka metsi sebakeng sa Yunnan li se li totobala haholo - ho fokotsa tlhahiso nakong ea komello ho ka ama 20% ea matla a ts'ebetso ea naha. Moetso ona oa phepelo o “tšetlehang ka boemo ba leholimo” o lebisitse ho lekhalo la tlhoko ea phepelo ea lithane tse milione limmarakeng tsa lehae. Ka nako e ts'oanang, katoloso ea matla a tlhahiso ea mose ho maoatle e ntse e le ka thata, 'me Europe e ntse e tsoela pele butle butle ka lebaka la litšenyehelo tse phahameng tsa matla,' me linaha tse kang India le Russia li ntse li sokola ho felisa khohlano ea phepelo ea lefats'e e bakiloeng ke sekheo sa China.
Liphetoho tsa sebopeho lehlakoreng la tlhokeho, 'me pina e ncha ea matla e fetoha enjene ea mantlha.
Lehlakore la tlhokeho le hlahisa karolo ea "dual track drive": mafapheng a setso, maano a China a khothaletso ea meralo ea motheo a khothaletsa kholo ea tlhoko ea aluminium bakeng sa meaho e mecha joalo ka motlakase o phahameng haholo le lipalangoang tsa terene. Ho lebelletsoe hore karolo ea tšebeliso ea aluminium mafapheng a amanang e tla nyolohela ho 15% ka 2025; Libakeng tse ntseng li hlaha, ho khantša likoloi tsa motlakase le ho atolosoa ha matla a kentsoeng a photovoltaic ke tsona tse ka sehloohong tse ntseng li eketseha. Lintlha li bontša hore tšebeliso ea aluminium ea likoloi tse ncha tsa matla ka koloi e eketsehile ka makhetlo a 2-3 ha e bapisoa le likoloi tse tloaelehileng tsa mafura, 'me sekhahla sa selemo le selemo sa khōlo ea aluminium bakeng sa liforeimi le li-brackets tsa photovoltaic se fihlile 26%. Habohlokoa le ho feta ke hore phello ea aluminium phetohong ea matla e ntse e hlaha butle-butle, 'me melemo ea eona ea conductivity le bobebe e senya karolo ea' maraka ea thepa ea koporo. JPMorgan e bolela esale pele hore sekhahla sa kholo ea tlhoko ea aluminium lefatšeng ka bophara se tla fihla ho 4% ka 2025, e leng holimo haholo ho feta 2.1% ea koporo.
Ho matlafala ha lipapali tsa theko le ho hlaha ha menyetla ea meralo har'a mefuta e mengata ea ho fokotseha.
Ts'ebetso ea hajoale ea litheko tsa aluminium e fana ka litšoaneleho tse tharo tse kholo: pele, litheko tsa aluminium tsa LME li feto-fetoha ho tloha ho $ 2700-2900 / ton, ho bonts'a ntoa pakeng tsa litebello tsa khaello ea phepelo le ho se tsitse ha macro; Ea bobeli, theko ea malapeng ea aluminium ea Shanghai e tšehetsoa ke tebello ea lithibelo tsa tlhahiso ea Yunnan, 'me letšoao la 20000 le fetohile sepheo sa lipapali tse telele tse khutšoanyane; Ntlha ea boraro, ho fetoha ha litheko tsa alumina ho eketsehile, 'me keketseho ea bokhoni ba tlhahiso ea bauxite Guinea e thehile lekhoakhoa khahlanong le lithibelo tsa tikoloho ea lehae. Mohlala oa Morgan Stanley o bontša hore ha ho e-na le tšitiso e kholo ea phepelo, litheko tsa aluminium li ka senya $ 3000 / ton, ha ho putlama ha moruo oa lefats'e ho ka ama boemo ba kelello ba $ 2000.
Ntlafatso ea matrix a kotsi, mefuta e mene e meholo e hloka ho lateloa haufi-ufi
Lintlha tse 'nè tse kholo tsa kotsi tseo u lokelang ho li ela hloko ha u tsetela indastering ea aluminium.
E 'ngoe ke tokiso ea leano la tlhahiso ea tlhahiso ea China, e hlokang ho ela hloko ho hatelloa ha matla a phahameng a tlhahiso ea matla ka khoebo ea carbon emission.
Ea bobeli ke ho feto-fetoha ha litheko tsa matla a lefats'e, 'me koluoa ea khase ea tlhaho ea Europe le phetoho ea matla a metsi a Yunnan ho tloha linakong tsa metsi ho ea ho tse omileng li ka baka tsitsipano ea litšenyehelo.
Ntlha ea boraro, ho na le phetoho ea leano la khoebo, 'me ho na le kotsi ea ho pheta-pheta litefiso tsa US ho lihlahisoa tsa aluminium tse tsoang Chaena.
Ea bone ke phello e hulang ea ketane ea thekiso ea matlo, 'me phetoho ea' maraka oa thekiso ea matlo oa Chaena e ka baka konteraka ea 8% -10% ea tlhokahalo ea aluminium ea kaho.
Tlhahiso ea leano: Tšoara bonnete 'me u qobe likotsi tsa sebopeho
1. Sepheo se tiileng sa bokhoni ba tlhahiso: Tsepamisa maikutlo holim'a likhoebo tse etelletseng pele libakeng tse theko e tlase joalo ka Yunnan le Xinjiang, tseo botsitso ba tlhahiso ea tsona bo haellang ka lebaka la tšitiso ea matla a fehloang ka metsi.
2. Ponahalo ea pina e ncha ea matla: Ntho e tlang pele e tla fuoa bafani ba thepa ea boleng bo holimo e kang liforeimi tsa photovoltaic le literei tsa betri.
3. Monyetla oa ho thibela: Notlela phaello e tsoang ho electrolytictlhahiso ea aluminiumnakong ea fensetere ea tokiso ea theko ea aluminium.
4. Geopolitical risk hedging: Ela hloko tsoelopele ea merero ea Guinea bauxite 'me u qobe likotsi tse tsoang mohloling o le mong oa phepelo.
E eme ntlheng ea 2025, 'maraka oa aluminium o ntse o fetoha ho tloha ho lihlahisoa tsa setso tsa cyclical ho ea ho lisebelisoa tse hlahang tsa maano. Maiteko a sa khaotseng a leano la tlhahiso ea tlhahiso ea China le khothatso e tebileng ea phetoho ea matla lefatšeng ka bophara li entse hore tšepe ena e se ke ea hlola e e-ba le inflation le ho thabela tefiso ea kholo. Batseteli ba hloka ho fumana moralo o nepahetseng oa kabo ea kabo ea kotsi ho likhokahanyo tse mahlakore a mararo tsa ho tiea ha leano, ts'ireletso ea matla, le phetoho ea tlhokeho.
Nako ea poso: May-20-2025