Ka la 27 Motšeanong, 2025, Komisi ea Taolo ea Ts'ireletso ea China e amohetse ka molao ngoliso eamotsoako oa aluminiumbokamoso le likhetho ho Shanghai Futures Exchange, e tšoaeang sehlahisoa sa pele sa lefats'e sa bokamoso se nang le aluminium e nchafalitsoeng e le motheo oa eona oa ho kena 'marakeng oa lihlahisoa tsa China. Tekanyo ena e ke ke ea fetola feela mokhoa oa litheko tsa ketane ea indasteri ea aluminium, empa hape e ka fetoha sesebelisoa sa bohlokoa sa lichelete ho khothaletsa phetoho ea khabone e tlase indastering ea lefats'e ea aluminium.
Tšusumetso e tebileng ho ketane ea indasteri ea aluminium
Katleho ho Boemo ba Indasteri ea Aluminium e Recycled
E le mohlahisi e moholo ka ho fetisisa lefatšeng le moreki oa li-alloys tse entsoeng ka aluminium (e nang le tlhahiso ea lithane tse limilione tse 6.2 le tšebeliso ea lithane tse limilione tse 6.73 ka 2024), indasteri ea aluminium e nchafalitsoeng ke khale e tobane le bothata ba pherekano ea mekhoa ea litheko. Cheng Huawei, mookameli oa Ofisi ea Bongoli ea Guangdong Hongjin New Materials Group, o bontšitse hore bareki ba tlaase ba na le tlhokahalo e matla ea litaelo tsa ho koala theko, empa ka lebaka la khaello ea mefuta e sa tšoaneng ea bokamoso ba aluminium, likhoebo li ka itšetleha feela ka bokamoso ba pele ba aluminium kapa ho fana ka litaelo tsa ho notlela litheko, ho baka likotsi tsa ho kheloha ha litheko. Ho hlahisoa ha bokamoso ba aluminium alloy ho tla tlatsa lekhalo lena ka kotloloho, ho fihlela khokahano ea theko lipakeng tsa aluminium e nchafalitsoeng le aluminium ea mantlha, le ho khothaletsa ts'ebetso ea maemo a indasteri.
Boqapi ho Lisebelisoa tsa Taolo ea Likotsi
Lethathamo la lisebelisoa tsa bokamoso le likhetho le fana ka mekhoa e mecha bakeng sa likhoebo tsa ketane ea aluminium ho thibela ho fetoha ha litheko. Ha re nka mohlala oa likhoebo tsa aluminium tse nchafalitsoeng, karolo ea aluminium e senyehileng litšenyehelong tsa thepa ea bona e tala e feta 70%, 'me mefuta e fapaneng ea ho fetoha ha litheko tsa aluminium e lula e phahame ho feta ea aluminium ea electrolytic. Ka 'maraka oa bokamoso, lik'hamphani li ka finyella:
Hedging: Notlela litšenyehelo tsa theko ea thepa e tala le litheko tsa thekiso ea lihlahisoa ho qoba kotsi ea ho fetoha ha litheko tsa tšepe.
Tsamaiso ea thepa: Ho sebelisa lirisiti tsa polokelo ea thepa ea nakong e tlang ho fokotsa khatello ea thepa ea nako e seng ea nako le ho atolosa mecha ea thekiso.
Tlhahiso ea lichelete: Ho sebelisa lirisiti tsa nakong e tlang tsa polokelo e le tebeletso ho fumana lichelete tsa theko e tlase le ho ntlafatsa ketane ea chelete.
Accelerator e tlase ea ho fetola khabone
Li-alloys tsa aluminiamo tse sebelisoang haholo-holo li sebelisa aluminium e senyehileng e le thepa e tala, 'me ho hlahisa thane e le 1 ea aluminium e sebelisoang hape ho ka fokotsa khabone ka ho feta 95%, e leng eona tsela ea mantlha ea phetoho ea khabone e tlaase indastering ea lefats'e ea aluminium. Wang Jian, Motlatsi oa Mopresidente oa China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, o hatelletse hore lisebelisoa tsa nakong e tlang li tla tataisa chelete ho bokella indastering ea aluminium e tala, le ho potlakisa phetoho ea indasteri ea khabone e tlase ka mochini oa phetisetso ea "kabo ea lisebelisoa tsa theko ea ntlafatso ea indasteri".
Ho tsosolosoa ha Paterone ea Futures Market
1. Ntoa ea matla a theko
Wang Rong, motlatsi oa motsamaisi oa Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, o bolela esale pele hore lethathamo la bokamoso ba aluminium alloy le tla phephetsa puso ea theko ea lefatše ea London Metal Exchange (LME) ka theko ea aluminium.
Lebaka ke hore:
Tlhahiso ea aluminium e nchafalitsoeng ea China e etsa karolo ea 57% ea kakaretso ea lefats'e, 'me lihlahisoa tsa kamoso li bonts'a tlhoko ea' maraka oa Asia ka kotloloho.
Boqapi molemong oa tlhahiso ea lihlahisoa: Sistimi e reriloeng ea ho fana ka li-ingots tsa aluminium tse nchafalitsoeng nakong e fetileng e tsamaellana haholoanyane le litlhoko tsa 'nete tsa likhoebo tsa Asia.
Tšehetso ea karohano ea pholisi: Tlas'a lipheo tsa China tsa "dual carbon", lihlahisoa tsa aluminium tse tala li tla thabela likhothaletso tsa lekhetho, ho matlafatsa matla a litheko tsa bokamoso.
2. Phetoho ea sebopeho sa barupeluoa
Ho lebelletsoe hore 'maraka oa bokamoso o tla hlahisa lihlopha tse tharo tse kholo tse nkang karolo:
Likhoebo tsa ketane ea indasteri: mekelikeli ea aluminium, likhoebo tse sebetsang hape tsa aluminium, baetsi ba likarolo tsa likoloi, joalo-joalo, ka karolo e lebelletsoeng ea ho feta 60%.
Mekhatlo ea matsete: Chelete ea CTA, lichelete tsa hedge tsa thepa, tse sebelisang ho fetoha ha theko ho hlahisa phaello.
Bahoebi ba moeling: Ka ho ikopanya ha lichaba tsa 'maraka oa bokamoso ba Chaena, lik'hamphani tse Asia Boroa-bochabela, Middle East, le libaka tse ling tse sebelisang aluminium e nchafalitsoeng li tla nka karolo ho arbitrage.
Mosebetsi o ntlafalitsoeng oa ho sibolla litheko
Mmaraka oa hona joale oa matheba bakeng sa castlisebelisoa tsa aluminiumha e na litheko tse kopaneng, 'me liphapang tsa litheko tsa libaka hangata li fihla ho 500 yuan/ton. Ka mor'a hore 'maraka oa bokamoso o thathamisitsoe, ho pepeseha ha litheko ho tla ntlafatsoa haholo ka mekhoa ea ho reka le ho fana ka thepa. Ho ipapisitsoe le boiphihlelo ba lethathamo la bokamoso ba rebar, ho lebelletsoe hore litheko tsa nako e tlang e tla ba letšoao la litheko bakeng sa khoebo e fetang 80% ea khoebo ea naha ea aluminium nakong ea lilemo tse 3.
Bohlokoa ba maano le lintlha tsa indasteri
Paradigm e ncha ea ho sebeletsa moruo oa 'nete
Joalokaha ho boletsoe tokollong e fetileng, bokamoso ba aluminium alloy ea foundry bo tla khomarela boemo ba "ho sebeletsa nts'etsopele e tala" le ho qobella ntlafatso ea indasteri ka ho beha litekanyetso tse tiileng tsa boleng bakeng sa lihlahisoa tsa ho fana (tse kang litaba tse sa hloekang le thepa ea mechine). Sena se lumellana le litlhoko tsa khabone tsa European Union's Carbon Border Tax (CBAM) bakeng sa lihlahisoa tsa aluminium tse tsoang kantle ho naha, ho thusa indasteri ea aluminium ea China ho ntlafatsa tlholisano ea eona ea machabeng.
Ho fetola Sebopeho sa 'Maraka oa Lefatše oa Aluminium
Keketseho ea indasteri ea aluminium e sebelisoang hape ea China e ngola bocha 'mapa oa phepelo ea aluminium ea lefats'e le tlhokeho. Ka 2024, karolo ea tlhahiso ea aluminium e nchafalitsoeng Chaena ho ea ho aluminium ea mantlha e fihlile ho 22%, athe karolelano ea lefats'e ke 15% feela. Ntlafatso ea lisebelisoa tsa bokamoso e tla potlakisa ts'ebetso ena, 'me ho lebeletsoe hore ka 2030, karolo ea tlhahiso ea aluminium e nchafalitsoeng Chaena e tla feta 35%, e tsoelang pele ho hatella sebaka sa' maraka sa carbon aluminium e mose ho maoatle.
Tšenolo ea Tlhahiso e Ncha
Ho thakholoa ha bokamoso ba alloy alloy ho fane ka mohlala bakeng sa khoebo ea kamoso ea mefuta e meng ea tšepe e sebelisoang hape, joalo ka koporo e tsosolositsoeng le zinki. Morero oa mantlha ke ho kenyelletsa lisebelisoa tsa "merafo ea litoropong" tsamaisong ea litheko tsa thepa le ho khothaletsa nts'etsopele ea moruo o potolohang ka boqapi ba lichelete.
Ka kakaretso, lethathamo la bokamoso ba alloy alloy le likhetho ha se feela mohato oa bohlokoa bakeng sa 'maraka oa lihlahisoa tsa China ho sebeletsa moruo oa nnete, empa hape ke motheo oa mantlha oa lichelete bakeng sa phetoho ea khabone e tlase indastering ea lefats'e ea aluminium. Ka khaho ea marang-rang a polokelo ea thepa le ntlafatso ea mekhoa ea ho tšela moeli, mofuta ona o lebelletsoe ho ba setsi sa litheko tsa tšepe tse sa sebetseng ka ho fetesisa sebakeng sa nako sa Asia, se fetolang bocha mohopolo oa kabo ea boleng ba ketane ea lefats'e ea indasteri ea aluminium.
Nako ea poso: May-29-2025