Ⅰ. Qetellong ea tlhahiso: "Katoloso e makatsang" ea alumina le electrolytic aluminium
1. Alumina: Bothata ba Batšoaruoa ba Khōlo e Phahameng le Thepa e Phahameng
Ho ea ka lintlha tse tsoang ho Ofisi ea Sechaba ea Lipalo-palo, tlhahiso ea aluminium ea Chaena e fihlile ho lithane tse limilione tse 7.475 ka March 2025 (+ 10.3% selemo le selemo), ka tlhahiso ea lithane tse limilione tse 22.596 karolong ea pele (+ 12.0% selemo le selemo). Leha ho na le keketseho e tsoelang pele ea tlhahiso, 'maraka o oetse nakong e mpe ea "ho eketsa tlhahiso ntle le ho eketsa chelete"
Ho felloa ke matla hoa matlafala:Lisebelisoa tsa lehae tsa alumina tsa sechaba li fetile lithane tse limilione tse 3.958, hammoho le khatello ea ho buloa ha fensetere ea thepa e tsoang linaheng tse ling (theko ea FOB ea Australia e theohile ho $ 373 / ton), 'me litheko tsa letheba li theohile ka tlase ho moeli oa litšenyehelo tsa chelete sebakeng sa Shanxi (3250 yuan/ton).
Likhatello tsa litšenyehelo ho fokotsa tlhahiso:Limela tsa Alumina tse Henan, Guizhou le libakeng tse ling li se li qalile ho lokisoa ka lebaka la tahlehelo ea phallo ea chelete, e bakileng phokotso ea khoeli ea 2.85% ka khoeli ea matla a ts'ebetso ho lithane tse limilione tse 88.6 ka selemo ka Hlakubele. Leha ho le joalo, ho lokolloa ha lithane tse limilione tse 1 tsa matla a macha a tlhahiso Indonesia ho ekelitse matla a lefatše ka bophara.
2. Electrolytic aluminium: "tekanyo e tiileng" tlas'a siling ea bokhoni ba tlhahiso
Tlhahiso ea aluminium ea electrolytic ka March e ne e le lithane tse limilione tse 3.746 (+ 4.4% selemo le selemo), 'me tlhahiso e kenyelletsoeng karolong ea pele e ne e le lithane tse limilione tse 11.066 (+ 3.2% selemo le selemo). Leha ho bile le ts'ebetso ea tlhahiso sebakeng se ka boroa-bophirima (ka Yunnan Hongtai a boloka matla a felletseng a tlhahiso ea lithane tse limilione tse 1.5), elasticity ea phepelo e hatelloa ke maano.
Ho fetola bokhoni ho laola:Sichuan, Guangxi le libaka tse ling li qala tlhahiso haholo-holo ka ho fetola bokhoni, ha tlhahiso ea khale ea Baotou Aluminium e tlosoa ho fokotsa keketseho, e leng se bakang kholo e fokolang ea phepelo ea marang-rang.
Ho fokotseha ha thepa ho potlakisa:Mathoasong a April, thepa ea sechaba ea aluminium electrolytic e theohile ho lithane tse 744000 (selemo le selemo -138000 lithane), 'me lethathamo la LME le boetse le oela ho lithane tse 459000, tse tšehetsang ho tiea ha theko ea aluminium.
Ⅱ. Ka lehlakoreng la tlhokahalo: "ho rusolla ha moralo" lipakeng tsa lipina tsa setso le tse ntseng li hlaha
1. Sebaka sa setso: Polao e habeli ea meaho le kantle ho naha
Thekiso ea thekiso ea matlo e ntse e fokotseha:ho tloha ka January ho ea ho March, index ea sebaka sa thekiso ea matlo a khoebo e ne e le sebakeng se "batang", tekanyo ea kaho ea profil ea kaho e ne e le 61% feela, 'me sekhahla sa kholo ea tlhahiso ea aluminium (1,3%) se ne se le tlase haholo ho feta tekanyo ea kgolo ea phepelo ea aluminium electrolytic.
Thekiso e shebane le tlhaselo ea litefiso:Litefiso tsa aluminium tsa US ho Chaena li nyolohile ho tloha ho 104% ho ea ho 145%, ka thepa ea aluminium ka January le February e theohile ka 4.5% selemo le selemo. Likhamphani li retelehela khoebong ea lipalangoang tsa Asia Boroa-bochabela e le sebaka se sireletsehileng.
2. Matla a macha le tlhahiso ea maemo a holimo: tlhokahalo ea lienjineri tse ncha
Khōlo e phatlohang eamotsoako oa aluminium:Ka March, tlhahiso ea aluminium alloy e fihlile ho lithane tse limilione tse 1.655 (selemo le selemo + 16,2%), e tsamaisoang ke boima bo bobebe ba likoloi tse ncha tsa matla (ho potlakisa aluminium aluminium substitution) le tlhokahalo ea liforeimi tsa photovoltaic (ho rua molemo ho leano le lecha la theko ea motlakase ea malapeng).
Khatelo-pele ea ho kenya lisebelisoa tsa aluminium tsa boemo bo holimo: Teko e atlehileng ea Dongqing Special Materials e hlahisitse likheo tse phahameng tsa terata ea magnesium, liodara tsa borakete tsa aluminium tsa Longi Corporation li eketsehile ka 35% selemo le selemo, 'me ho nkeloa sebaka ke kantle ho naha masimong a kopo ea maemo a holimo ho potlakile.
Ⅲ.Litšenyehelo le Theko: Collapse of Alumina vs. Profit Expansion of Electrolytic Aluminium
1. Ho tsosolosoa ha curve ea litšenyehelo
Aluminium oxide e oetse 'mokhoeng oa lefu':litheko tsa lehae tsa bauxite li theohile (ho theoha ka 5% khoeli le khoeli sebakeng sa Jin Yu), litšenyehelo tsa thepa tse thusang tse kang caustic soda le mashala li fokotsehile, 'me litšenyehelo tse boima ba indasteri li theohetse ho 3158 yuan/ton, empa litheko li theohile le ka potlako (litheko tsa Shanxi li theohile ka tlase ho 3000 yuan/ton).
Katoloso ea moeli oa phaello bakeng sa aluminium ea electrolytic:Karolo ea litšenyehelo tsa alumina e theohetse ho 40% (55% ka 2024), phaello e lekantsoeng ea indasteri ea aluminium ea electrolytic e fihlile ho 3700 yuan/ton, 'me phaello e kholo ea lik'hamphani tsa Yunnan hydropower (tse kang Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd.) li fetile 25%.
2. Phapang ea theko e eketsehileng
Alumina oscillation ea tlase e tsoa:Tšusumetso ea mehloli e theko e tlaase ea mose ho maoatle (Indonesia e eketsa lithane tse limilione tse 6.5 tsa bokhoni ba tlhahiso e lokelang ho tseteloa) le ho lokolloa ha matla a macha a tlhahiso ea malapeng (projeke ea Guangxi ea lithane tse limilione tse 2 e fihla tlhahiso e feletseng ka April) e hatelletse sebaka sa ho khutlela morao, 'me sebaka sa ts'ebetso se lebelletsoeng bakeng sa kotara ea bobeli ke 2800-3200 yuan/ton.
Matla a phahameng a aluminium ea electrolytic:Litheko tsa aluminium tsa LME li lula li tsitsitse ho 2450-2550 lidolara tsa US / tonne, 'me konteraka e ka sehloohong ea aluminium ea Shanghai e tšehetsoa ke thepa e tlaase le litebello tsa pholisi (lithuso tsa "ntlofatso ea lisebelisoa" tsa malapeng), ka sepheo sa nako e khutšoanyane ea 20500 yuan / tonne.
Ⅳ. Khoebo ea Machabeng le Leano: Lekhetho la 'Grey Rhino' le Phetoho e Tala
1. Ketane ea tšusumetso ea papali ea litefiso tsa China US
Ntlafatso ea ketane ea indasteri ea likoloi:United States e behile litefiso tsa 25% ho likoloi tse tsoang kantle ho naha, e qobella feme ea Tesla ea Mexico ho chechisa tlhahiso. Palo ea thepa e romelloang kantle ea aluminium ea Machaena United States e theohetse ho 5% (lik'hamphani tse kang Wan'an Technology li potlakisa phetoho ea tsona 'marakeng oa Europe).
Leano la Phetisetso ea Rusal:Ha nako ea tokollo ea EU bakeng sa Rusal e ntse e atamela, Rusal e potlakisa phetisetso ea eona libakeng tsa polokelo tsa Asia (ho romela lithane tse 154000 tsa alumina ho ea Russia ka Hlakubele), mme lethathamo la LME la Rusal le nyolohetse ho 82%.
2. Ho se nke lehlakore ha carbon ho khanna ntlafatso ea indasteri
Lenaneo la teko la setifikeiti sa carbon footprint le se le thakhotsoe:Setifikeiti sa Baise electrolytic aluminium labeling carbon e se e kentsoe tšebetsong, 'me sepheo sa tlhahiso ea aluminium e nchafalitsoeng e ekelitsoe ho lithane tse limilione tse 6 ka selemo (ka theko ea Alcoa e tlase ea khabone e fihlang ho 15%).
Papali ea theko ea motlakase:Litheko tsa khase ea tlhaho tsa Europe li nyolohetse ho li-euro tse 35/megawatt hora, 'me ho tsosolosoa ha tlhahiso fekthering ea Jeremane ea Trimet Aluminium ho liehile. Ho tsitsisa ha motlakase oa metsi oa lapeng Yunnan e se e le sebaka sa kotsi ea phepelo.
Ⅴ. Maikutlo a bokamoso: Papali e 'meli ea phaello le phetoho
1. Alumina: Tahlehelo e tsamaisoang ke tahlehelo, tsepamisa maikutlo ho fokotsa tlhahiso e fokolang
Haeba theko e ntse e tsoela pele ho ba ka tlase ho 3000 yuan/ton, tekanyo ea phokotso ea tlhahiso karolong ea bobeli e ka fihla ho lithane tse limilione tse 2 / selemo, empa bokhoni bo bocha ba tlhahiso ea Indonesia bo ka fokotsa phello ea phokotso ea phepelo.
Keletso ea leano: Notlela litšenyehelo tsa nako e telele tsa thepa e tala ka litheko tse phahameng 'me u ele hloko China Aluminium Corporation (601600. SH), e nang le merafo ea eona.
2. Electrolytic aluminium: menyetla ea meralo tlas'a thepa e tlaase le likhaello tsa pholisi
Keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea tlhokahalo ea matla a macha (photovoltaic + likoloi tse ncha tsa matla) ke 800000 ho lithane tse limilione tse 1, e leng ho felisa ho theoha ha masimo a setso. Setsi sa theko ea aluminium se lebelletsoe ho boloka 19500 ho isa ho 21500 yuan/ton.
Nako ea poso: Apr-22-2025