Ho ea ka aluminium inventory data lokolloa ke London Metal Exchange (LME) le Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), ka March 21, LME aluminium inventory oela ho lithane tse 483925, otla tlaase e ncha ho tloha May 2024; Ka lehlakoreng le leng, thepa ea aluminium ea Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) e fokotsehile ka 6.95% beke le beke ho ea ho lithane tse 233240, e bontšang mokhoa oa ho khetholla "thata ka ntle le e hlephileng ka hare". Lintlha tsena li fapane haholo le ts'ebetso e matla ea litheko tsa LME tsa aluminium tse tsitsitseng ho $2300/ton le likonteraka tsa mantlha tsa aluminium tsa Shanghai tse nyolohang ka 20800 yuan/ton ka letsatsi le le leng, ho bonts'a papali e rarahaneng ea lefats'e.indasteri ea aluminiumketane tlasa phepelo le tlhokeho bocha le tlholisano ea lipolotiki.
Boemo ba likhoeli tse leshome bo tlase ba thepa ea aluminium ea LME e hlile e bakiloe ke tsitsipano lipakeng tsa likhohlano tsa Russia le Ukraine le leano la Indonesia la ho romela thepa kantle ho naha. Kamora ho lahleheloa ke 'maraka oa Europe ka lebaka la likotlo, Rusal e ile ea fetisetsa thepa ea eona kantle ho naha ho ea Asia. Leha ho le joalo, thibelo ea ho romela thepa ea bauxite e kenngoeng ke Indonesia ka 2025 e lebisitse ho tiisetso ea phepelo ea alumina ea lefats'e, ka mokhoa o sa tobang ho nyolla litšenyehelo tsa thepa ea aluminium ea LME. Lintlha li bonts'a hore ka Pherekhong le Pherekhong 2025, thekiso ea bauxite ea Indonesia e theohile ka 32% selemo le selemo, ha litheko tsa alumina tsa Australia li eketsehile ka 18% selemo le selemo ho ea ho $3200/ton, e leng ho hatellang phaello ea phaello ea li-smelters tsa mose ho maoatle. Ka lehlakoreng la tlhokahalo, baetsi ba likoloi ba Europe ba potlakisitse ho fetisetsoa ha melapo ea tlhahiso ho Chaena ho qoba likotsi tsa litefiso, ho khanna keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 210% ea thepa ea China ea aluminium electrolytic (e nang le thepa e tsoang linaheng tse ling e fihlang lithane tse 610000 ka January le February). Sena' ho kenya kopo ka hare ho litlhoko tsa kantle 'ho etsa hore lethathamo la LME e be sesupo se hlokolosi se bonts'ang likhohlano tsa phepelo ea machabeng le tlhokahalo.
Ho khutlisetsoa morao ha thepa ea aluminium ea lehae ea Shanghai ho amana haufi-ufi le potoloho ea tlhahiso ea tlhahiso le tokiso ea tebello ea leano. Phokotso ea tlhahiso (e ka bang lithane tse 500000) e bakoang ke khaello ea matla a metsi a Yunnan, Sichuan le libakeng tse ling ha e e-s'o ka e phethahala ka botlalo, ha matla a sa tsoa eketsoa (lithane tse 600000) libakeng tse theko e tlaase tse kang Inner Mongolia le Xinjiang e kene nakong ea tlhahiso. Matla a ts'ebetso ea aluminium ea electrolytic ea lapeng e nyolohetse ho lithane tse limilione tse 42, e fihlileng nalaneng e phahameng. Leha tšebeliso ea aluminium ea lehae e eketsehile ka 2.3% selemo le selemo ka Pherekhong le Hlakola, ketane e fokolang ea thekiso ea matlo (e nang le phokotso ea selemo le selemo ea 10% sebakeng se phethiloeng sa matlo a khoebo) le ho theoha ha thepa ea thepa ea lapeng (-8% selemo le selemo ka Pherekhong le Hlakola) e lebisitse ho ts'epo e kholo ea thepa. Ho bohlokoa ho hlokomela hore sekhahla sa kholo ea matsete a meralo ea lehae ka Hlakubele se feta tebello (+ 12,5% selemo le selemo ka Pherekhong le Hlakola), 'me ho bokellana ha merero ea meralo ea motheo ho khothalelitse keketseho ea 15% ea khoeli le khoeli ea litaelo tsa profil ea aluminium, e hlalosang botsitso ba ho khutla ha nako e khuts'oane ho Shanghai aluminium inventory.
Ho latela litšenyehelo, theko e felletseng ea aluminium ea electrolytic ea lapeng e lula e tsitsitse ho 16500 yuan/ton, 'me litheko tsa anode tse phehiloeng esale pele li boloka holimo ho 4300 yuan/ton le litheko tsa alumina li theohela hanyane ho 2600 yuan/ton. Mabapi le litšenyehelo tsa motlakase, lik'hamphani tsa Inner Mongolia tse ikemetseng li theotse litheko tsa motlakase ka litefello tsa motlakase o motala, ho boloka li-yuan tse fetang 200 tonne e le 'ngoe ea motlakase oa aluminium. Leha ho le joalo, khaello ea matla a fehloang ka metsi Yunnan e lebisitse keketsehong ea 10% ea litheko tsa motlakase bakeng sa likhoebo tsa lehae tsa aluminium, e leng ho mpefatsang phapang ea matla a libaka ka lebaka la phapang ea litšenyehelo.
Mabapi le litšoaneleho tsa lichelete, ka mor'a hore seboka sa phaello sa Federal Reserve sa March se lokolle letšoao la dovish, index ea lidolara tsa US e ile ea theohela ho 104,5, e fana ka tšehetso bakeng sa litheko tsa aluminium tsa LME, empa ho matlafatsoa ha sekhahla sa phapanyetsano ea yuan ea Chaena (CFETS index e nyolohetse ho 105,3) e hatelletse monyetla oa hore aluminium ea Shanghai e latele mohlala.
Ha re bua ka botekgeniki, 20800 yuan/ton ke boemo ba bohlokoa ba ho hanyetsa bakeng sa Shanghai Aluminium. Haeba e ka phunyeletsoa ka katleho, e ka hlahisa tšusumetso ho 21000 yuan/ton; Ho e-na le hoo, haeba thekiso ea thekiso ea matlo e hlōleha ho khutlela morao, khatello e tlaase e tla eketseha haholo.
Nako ea poso: Mar-25-2025