Ka la 29 April, 2025, theko e tloaelehileng ea A00 aluminium 'marakeng oa sebaka sa Nōka ea Yangtze e tlalehiloe ho 20020 yuan/ton, ka keketseho ea letsatsi le letsatsi ea 70 yuan; Konteraka e kholo ea Shanghai Aluminium, 2506, e koetsoe ka 19930 yuan/ton. Le hoja e ne e feto-fetoha hanyenyane nakong ea bosiu, e ne e ntse e tšoere boemo ba bohlokoa ba tšehetso ea 19900 yuan motšehare. Ka morao ho mokhoa ona oa ho nyoloha ho na le tsitsipano pakeng tsa lethathamo la lihlahisoa tse hlakileng tsa lefats'e tse oelang tlase historing le ho matlafala ha lipapali tsa lipolotiki:
Thepa ea aluminium ea LME e theohetse ho lithane tse 417575, ka nako e ka tlase ho beke ea matsatsi a teng, 'me litšenyehelo tse phahameng tsa matla Europe (ka theko ea khase ea tlhaho e nyolohelang ho li-euro tse 35/megawatt hora) li hatella tsoelo-pele ea ho tsosolosa tlhahiso.
Thepa ea sechaba ea Shanghai Aluminium e theohile ka 6.23% ho isa ho lithane tse 178597 ka beke. Ka lebaka la tokollo e matla ea lisebelisoa tsa lapeng le liodara tsa makoloi sebakeng se ka boroa, tefiso ea sebaka e ile ea feta li-yuan tse 200/ton, 'me ntlo ea polokelo ea Foshan e ile ea tlameha ho koloka matsatsi a fetang 3 ho lata thepa.
Ⅰ. Mokhoa oa ho khanna: Batla Resilience vs. Cost Collapse
1. Tlhokahalo ea matla a macha ke eona e etellang pele, 'me mafapha a setso a ntse a hlaphoheloa hanyane
Phello ea ho qetela ea ho potlakela ho kenya photovoltaics: Ka April, tlhahiso ea li-module tsa photovoltaic e eketsehile ka 17% khoeli le khoeli, 'me tlhokahalo ea liforeimi tsa aluminium e ile ea eketseha ka 22% selemo le selemo. Leha ho le joalo, ha leano la pholisi le ntse le atamela ka Mots'eanong, lik'hamphani tse ling li fetisitse liodara esale pele.
Ho potlakisa mabone a koloi: Palo ea aluminium e sebelisoang likoloing tse ncha tsa matla koloing ka 'ngoe e fetetse lik'hilograma tse 350, e tsamaisa lebelo la ts'ebetso ea lipoleiti tsa aluminium, li-strip le likhoebo tsa foil ho nyolohela ho 82%. Leha ho le joalo, ka April, sekhahla sa kholo ea thekiso ea likoloi se theohetse ho 12%, 'me phello e ngata ea khoebo ea pholisi e fokotsehile.
Ntlha ea bohlokoa ea litaelo tsa marang-rang a matla: Sehlopha sa bobeli sa State Grid sa theko ea motlakase o phahameng haholo bakeng sa thepa ea aluminium ke lithane tse 143000, 'me likhoebo tsa lithapo tsa aluminium li sebetsa ka botlalo, li tšehetsa tlhahiso ea palo ea aluminium ho boloka boemo bo phahameng ba lilemo tse hlano.
2. Ka lehlakoreng la litšenyehelo, ho na le maemo a mabeli a feteletseng: leqhoa le mollo
Khatello ea alumina e feteletseng e hlakile: ho tsosolosoa ha tlhahiso merafong ea Shanxi ho sutumelitse theko ea bauxite ho $ 80 / ton, theko ea letheba ea alumina e theohile ka tlase ho 2900 yuan / tonne, theko ea aluminium ea electrolytic e theohetse ho 16500 yuan / ton, 'me phaello ea indasteri ea 370 e eketsehile ho ea ho yuan 370.
Lintlha-khōlō tsa aluminium e tala: Theko ea lithane tsa Yunnan hydropower aluminium e tlase ho 2000 yuan ho feta matla a mocheso, 'me phaello e kholo ea likhoebo tse kang Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd.
Ⅱ. Papali ea Macro: Leano la 'sabole e sehang ka nģa tse peli' le arola litebello tsa 'maraka
1. Melaoana ea kholo e tsitsitseng ea lehae e thibela likotsi tsa tlhokahalo ea kantle
Kaho e bohareng ea merero ea meralo ea motheo: Khomishene ea Ntlafatso ea Naha le Nchafatso e rera ho fana ka lethathamo la merero e "habeli" bakeng sa selemo kaofela pele ho mafelo a Phuptjane, e lebelletsoeng ho tsamaisa keketseho ea lithane tse 500000 tsa tšebeliso ea aluminium.
Litebello tsa leano la lichelete tse hlephileng: Banka e bohareng e phatlalalitse "phokotso e nakong ea tekanyo ea tlhokahalo ea polokelo le litefiso tsa phaello", 'me tebello ea ho lahleheloa ke chelete e matla e tsositse phallo ea lichelete 'marakeng oa thepa.
2. mose ho maoatle 'black swan 'ts'okelo
Melawana e phetoang ya ditefiso tsa US: ho lefisa 70% ditefiso holihlahisoa tsa aluminiumho tloha Chaena ho hatella thepa e romelloang kantle ho naha, e amang liketane tsa indasteri ka mokhoa o sa tobang joalo ka lisebelisoa tsa lapeng le likarolo tsa makoloi. Likhakanyo tse tsitsitseng li bontša hore ho pepeseha ha aluminium ho US ke 2.3%.
Tlhokahalo e fokolang Europe: Palo ea ngoliso ea likoloi tse ncha ho EU kotareng ea pele e fokotsehile ka 1.9% selemo le selemo, mme keketseho ea tlhahiso ea Trimet Jeremane e hatelletse sebaka sa rebound sa aluminium ea London. Sekhahla sa phapanyetsano ea Shanghai London se nyolohetse ho 8.3, 'me tahlehelo ea thepa e tsoang kantle e feta 1000 yuan/ton.
Ⅲ. Ntoa ea Letlole: Phapang ea mantlha ea matla e ea matlafala, phallo ea likarolo e ea potlaka
Ntoa e telele e khuts'oane 'marakeng oa nako e tlang: Konteraka ea mantlha ea Shanghai Aluminium e fokotsehile ka lotho ea 10393 ka letsatsi, maemo a malelele a Yong'an Futures a fokotsehile ka lotho ea 12000, maemo a makhuts'oane a Guotai Jun'an a eketsehile ka lotho ea 1800, mme maikutlo a ho hana kotsi a lichelete a ile a phahama.
'Maraka oa' maraka o na le phapang e totobetseng: lefapha la mohopolo oa aluminium le ile la phahama ka 1.05% ka letsatsi le le leng, empa indasteri ea aluminium ea Chaena e ile ea theoha ka 0.93%, ha Nanshan Aluminium Industry e ile ea phahama ka 5.76% khahlanong le mokhoa ona, ka lichelete tse lebisitsoeng ho aluminium ea hydropower le baeta-pele ba phahameng ba ho sebetsa.
Ⅳ. Maikutlo a bokamoso: Mmaraka oa Pulse tlas'a botsitso bo tiileng
Nako e khuts'oane (likhoeli tse 1-2)
Ho feto-fetoha ho matla ha theko: E tšehetsoa ke tlhokahalo e tlase ea thepa le tlhoko ea ho khutlisa matsatsi a phomolo ka mor'a matsatsi a phomolo, Aluminium ea Shanghai e ka leka boemo ba khatello ea li-yuan tse 20300, empa tlhokomeliso e lokela ho sebelisoa khahlanong le ho khutlisetsoa ha lidolara tsa Amerika ka lebaka la tieho ea ho fokotsa sekhahla sa tsoala sa Federal Reserve.
Tlhokomeliso ea kotsi: Phetoho ea tšohanyetso ea leano la ho romela bauxite ea Indonesia le bothata ba ho fana ka thepa bo bakiloeng ke likotlo tsa aluminium tsa Russia li ka baka kotsi ea ho qobelloa ho boloka thepa.
Nako e mahareng ho isa ho e telele (halofo ea bobeli ea 2025)
Ho tloaeleha ha ho leka-lekana ho tiileng: Keketseho ea matla a tlhahiso ea aluminium ea electrolytic lefatšeng ka bophara e ka tlase ho lithane tse limilione tse 1 ka selemo, 'me tlhokahalo ea matla a macha e eketseha ka lithane tse 800000 ka selemo, e leng ho etsang hore ho be thata ho koala lekhalo.
Ntlafatso ea boleng ba ketane ea indasteri: Sekhahla sa tšebeliso ea aluminium e nchafalitsoeng se fetile 85%, 'me theknoloji e kopaneng ea ho bolaea e entse hore phaello e kholo ea ts'ebetso e fihle ho 20%. Likhoebo tse nang le litšitiso tsa theknoloji li tla etella pele mohatong o latelang oa kholo.
[Boitsebiso bo hlahang sengolong bo tsoa marang-rang, 'me maikutlo ke a litšupiso feela mme ha a sebelisoe joalo ka matsete]
Nako ea poso: May-06-2025