1. Tsepamiso ea Ketsahalo: United States e rera ho hlakola litefiso tsa likoloi ka nakoana, 'me phepelo ea lik'hamphani tsa likoloi e tla emisoa.
Haufinyane tjena, Mopresidente oa mehleng oa Amerika Trump o ile a bolela phatlalatsa hore o nahana ho kenya ts'ebetsong litokollo tsa nako e khuts'oane tsa litefiso tsa likoloi tse tsoang kantle ho naha le likarolo ho lumella lik'hamphani tse palamang mahala ho lokisa liketane tsa bona tsa phepelo tlhahiso ea lehae United States. Leha boholo le nako ea tokollo li sa hlake, polelo ena e ile ea tsosa litebello tsa 'maraka ka potlako bakeng sa phokotso ea likhatello tsa litšenyehelo ho ketane ea lefatše ea indasteri ea likoloi.
Katoloso e ka morao
"de Sinicization" ea lik'hamphani tsa likoloi e tobane le litšitiso: Ka 2024, palo ea likarolo tsa aluminium tse tsoang linaheng tse ling tsa Amerika tse tsoang Chaena li fokotsehile ka 18% selemo le selemo, empa karolo ea thepa e tsoang Canada le Mexico ho ea United States e nyolohetse ho 45%. Likhamphani tsa likoloi li ntse li itšetleha ka phepelo ea libaka tsa Amerika Leboea nakong e khuts'oane.
Karolo ea bohlokoa ea tšebeliso ea aluminium: Indasteri ea tlhahiso ea likoloi e etsa 25% -30% ea tlhoko ea lefats'e ea aluminium, ka tšebeliso ea selemo le selemo ea lithane tse ka bang limilione tse 4.5 'marakeng oa US. Ho lokoloha litefellong ho ka khothaletsa phokoletso ea nako e khuts'oane ea tlhokahalo ea thepa ea aluminium e tsoang kantle ho naha.
2. Tšusumetso ea 'Maraka: Nako e Khutšoane ea Tlhokahalo ea Boipheliso khahlanong le Papali ea Nako e telele ea Sebaka
Melemo ea nako e khuts'oane: Ho lokolloa ha litefiso ho tsosa litebello tsa 'ho nka thepa e tsoang kantle ho naha'
Haeba United States e kenya tšebetsong tokollo ea litefiso ea likhoeli tse 6-12 ho likarolo tsa makoloi tse tsoang kantle ho naha ho tsoa Canada le Mexico, lik'hamphani tsa makoloi li ka potlakisa ho boloka thepa ho fokotsa likotsi tsa litšenyehelo nakong e tlang. Ho hakanngoa hore indasteri ea likoloi ea US e hloka ho kenya lithane tse ka bang 120000 tsa aluminium (liphanele tsa 'mele, likarolo tse bolaeang, joalo-joalo) ka khoeli,' me nako ea ho lokolloa e ka 'na ea etsa hore ho be le keketseho ea tlhokahalo ea aluminium lefatšeng ka bophara ea 300000 ho lithane tse 500000 ka selemo. Litheko tsa aluminium tsa LME li ile tsa nyoloha hape ka lebaka la karabelo, ea nyoloha ka 1.5% ho ea ho $2520 ka tone ka la 14 Mmesa.
Nako e telele e mpe: Tlhahiso ea lehae e hatella tlhoko ea aluminium mose ho maoatle
Katoloso ea matla a tlhahiso ea aluminium e sebelisoang hape US: Ka 2025, matla a tlhahiso ea aluminium a US a lebelletsoe ho feta lithane tse limilione tse 6 ka selemo. Leano la "localization" la lik'hamphani tsa likoloi le tla beha pele ho rekoa ha aluminium ea khabone e tlase, ho hatella tlhoko ea aluminium ea mantlha e tsoang kantle ho naha.
Karolo ea "seteishene sa lipalangoang" sa Mexico e fokotsehile: Tesla's Mexico Gigafactory tlhahiso e chechisitsoe morao ho fihlela 2026, 'me ho ka etsahala hore litokollo tsa nako e khuts'oane li fetole mokhoa oa nako e telele oa phepelo ea phepelo ea lik'hamphani tsa likoloi.
3. Khokahano ea indasteri: arbitrage ea maano le tokiso ea khoebo ea aluminium lefatšeng ka bophara
Papali ea "window period" ea China
Thomelontle ya dihlahiswa tse sebeditsweng ka aluminium e eketsehile: Letlapa la aluminium la koloi la China le thepa e romellwang kantle ho naha di eketsehile ka 32% selemo le selemo ka Hlakubele. Haeba United States e sa lokolle litefiso, likhoebo tse sebetsang sebakeng sa Yangtze River Delta (joalo ka Chalco le Asia Pacific Technology) li ka 'na tsa tobana le ho eketseha ha litaelo.
Khoebo ea kantle ho naha e ntse e eketseha: palo ea thepa ea aluminium e felileng ka botlalo ho tsoa linaheng tsa Asia Boroa-bochabela joalo ka Malaysia le Vietnam ho ea United States e ka eketseha ka mocha ona, ho qoba lithibelo tsa tšimoloho.
Lik'hamphani tsa aluminium tsa Europe li tlas'a khatello ea mahlakore ka bobeli
Theko ea litšenyehelo e totobatsoa: litšenyehelo tse feletseng tsa aluminium ea electrolytic Europe li ntse li phahame ho feta $ 2500 / ton, 'me haeba tlhokahalo ea US e fetela tlhahiso ea malapeng, limela tsa aluminium tsa Europe li ka qobelloa ho fokotsa tlhahiso (e kang semela sa Jeremane se Heidelberg).
Ntlafatso ea lithibelo tse tala: Lekhetho la moeli oa khabone ea EU (CBAM) le akaretsa indasteri ea aluminium, e matlafatsa tlholisano bakeng sa maemo a "low-carbon aluminium" US le Europe.
Ho becha ka chelete e ngata ka 'policy volatility'
Ho ea ka lintlha tsa likhetho tsa CME tsa aluminium, ka la 14 April, ho tšoaroa ha likhetho tsa mohala ho ile ha eketseha ka 25%, 'me theko ea aluminium e feta 2600 lidolara tsa US ka tonne ka mor'a hore ho fanoe ka tumello; Empa Goldman Sachs o lemosa hore haeba nako ea ho lokolloa e le khutšoanyane ho feta likhoeli tsa 6, litheko tsa aluminium li ka 'na tsa fana ka melemo ea tsona.
4. Boprofeta ba Aluminium Price Trend: Pholisi ea Pholisi le Khohlano ea Mantlha
Nako e khuts'oane (likhoeli tse 1-3)
Ho ea holimo: Ho se be le litebello ho etsa hore ho be le tlhokahalo ea ho tlatsetsoa, 'me lethathamo la LME le theoha ka tlase ho lithane tse 400000 (lithane tse 398000 tse tlalehiloeng ka la 13 Mmesa), litheko tsa aluminium li ka leka mefuta e fapaneng ea lidolara tse 2550-2600 tsa US/ton.
Kotsi e theohelang: Haeba lintlha tsa ho lokolloa ha li lebeletsoe (tse kang ho lekanyetsoa koloing eohle le likarolo tse sa kenyellelitsoeng), theko ea aluminium e ka 'na ea khutlela boemong ba tšehetso ea $ 2450 / ton.
Nako e bohareng (likhoeli tse 6-12)
Phapang ea tlhokeho: Ho lokolloa ha matla a tlhahiso ea aluminium e sebelisoang lapeng United States e hatella thepa e tsoang kantle ho naha, empa thepa ea kantle ho naha ea Chinalikoloi tse ncha tsa matla(ka keketseho ea tlhokahalo ea selemo le selemo ea lithane tse 800000) le merero ea meralo ea meaho Asia Boroa-bochabela khahlano le litlamorao tse mpe.
Setsi sa theko: Litheko tsa aluminium tsa LME li ka boloka mefuta e mengata ea ho feto-fetoha ha lidolara tsa 2300-2600 US / ton, ka keketseho ea sekhahla sa tšitiso ea leano.
Nako ea poso: Apr-15-2025